chilliheatmegawayspragmatic|华金证券：节后A股继续震荡上行 TMT和核心资产可能占优

Zhitong Financial APP learned thatChilliheatmegawayspragmaticHuajin Securities released a research report that the expected risk events before the festival basically did not occur, and A-shares continued to shock upward after the festival. In terms of industry allocation, growth is dominant, focusing on TMT and core assets. Post-TMT and core assets may be dominant: first, according to historical review experience, when the index rises rapidly, the performance of science and technology growth, non-ferrous metals, securities firms and other industries is relatively dominant. Second, according to the previous analysis, foreign capital may continue to inflow in the short term, and core assets such as Dianxin, home appliances, food and beverages may benefit.

The views of Joaquin Securities are as follows:

Sino-US relations have a certain impact on short-term foreign capital inflows, but the long-term impact is limited. (1) the change in Sino-US relations is not the main factor in the short-term inflow of foreign capital: first, the important events of Sino-US trade friction have little impact on the inflow of foreign capital in that month; second, the large outflow of foreign capital is mostly caused by other negative shocks, such as the COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in March 2022. (2) the recent inflow of foreign capital has increased in Europe, the Middle East and so on. First, the positions of European institutions (excluding the UK) have increased by 110% since April.Chilliheatmegawayspragmatic90 million yuan (24%), the position held by British-funded institutions increased by 10.26 billion yuan (22%); second, the inflow of institutional funds into A-shares from the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and other regions increased significantly.

Domestic real estate sales have a certain impact on the short-term inflow of foreign capital. (1) there is a positive correlation between real estate sales and foreign capital inflows. (2) when there is no external negative shock, when the growth rate of real estate sales increases, the inflow of foreign capital also increases: for example, real estate sales and foreign capital inflows rose during the periods of 2016.4-2018.10, 2021.2-2021.12 and 2023.3-2023.5. (3) when real estate sales are weak, there is also a large outflow of foreign capital, and external shocks are the main factors, such as real estate sales and foreign capital inflows from April to May 2019, February to March 2020 and January to March 2022.

Whether the policy is loose or tight or not has a limited impact on foreign capital inflows. (1) when the economy is weak, the policy is likely to be loose, and the inflow of foreign capital may be weak or strong: first, the fundamentals in 2015 are weak and the policy is loose, but Land Stock Exchange has only a small inflow of 18.5 billion in the whole year; second, under the weak fundamentals in 2018, large-scale tax cuts, three reserve requirement cuts and other easing policies continued, and Land Stock Exchange had a substantial inflow of 294.2 billion in the whole year. (2) policies may be tight when the economy improves significantly, but foreign capital inflows may also be strong: first, financial deleveraging under improved fundamentals in 2016, but land stock inflows exceed 60 billion; second, structural deleveraging and housing speculation under the repair of fundamentals in 2019, but land stock flows into 351.7 billion.

At present, there is a high probability that foreign capital will continue to inflow in the short term. (1) there is no obvious external negative impact in the near future, and foreign capital may continue to flow in the short term. First, China-US and China-EU relations have continued to improve in the short term; second, the conflict between Iran and Israel has gradually cooled down; third, the postponement of the Fed's interest rate cut has been fully expected by the market, and the dollar index has fallen somewhat. (2) the downward rate of domestic real estate sales may slow down. First, the domestic real estate policy has been continuously relaxed. Second, compared with overseas experience, domestic real estate sales have fallen by a large margin. (3) the landing of the follow-up policy may be accelerated, and the probability will not be lower than expected. First, the meeting of the Politburo relies on forward efforts; second, the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee studies the issue of promoting Chinese-style modernization and focuses on economic development.

The expected risk events before the festival basically did not occur, and A-shares continued to shock upward after the festival. (1) Economic repair and profit improvement are expected to continue. First, the May Day holiday travel, consumption is better, in line with previous expectations; second, the Politburo meeting set the tone to enhance economic and profit expectations. (2) liquidity: the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts has been fully expected, domestic loosening, post-holiday financing, foreign capital inflows are likely to rise. (3) policies to boost risk appetite: first, there are no obvious risk events during the holiday season, and President Xi's visit to Europe may boost market sentiment; second, Politburo meetings may boost post-holiday market risk appetite.

Post-holiday industry configuration: growth is dominant, focus on TMT and core assets. (1) Post-holiday TMT and core assets may be dominant: first, according to historical review experience, when the index rises rapidly, the performance of science and technology growth, non-ferrous metals, securities firms and other industries is relatively dominant. Second, according to the previous analysis, foreign capital may continue to inflow in the short term, and core assets such as Dianxin, home appliances, food and beverages may benefit. (2) Post-holiday recommendations: first, policy and industry trends in the media (AI in games, education, etc.), computers (autopilot, data elements), communications (computing, low-altitude economy and car networking), electronics (semiconductors, consumer electronics) Second, oversold and economic repair of electric new (battery, photovoltaic, wind power), brokerage, consumption (food and beverage, tourism, textile clothing), chemical industry, automobile, home appliances and so on.

Risk hint: historical experience may not be applicable in the future, policy changes exceed expectations, and economic repair falls short of expectations.